Lloyd’s 2026 Market Outlook: Capacity, Complexity and Opportunity for US Brokers

Jan 26

Lloyd’s has announced a 3% increase in stamp capacity for 2026, taking it to approximately GBP 60bn. This growth, though measured, is a clear signal of Lloyd’s ongoing commitment to supporting innovation and resilience in the London Market. For US brokers, this presents a timely opportunity to access world-class insurance solutions for even the most complex client needs.

Capacity Growth, with Discipline

While capacity growth is welcome, it is not indicative of a return to broad-based expansion. Instead, Lloyd’s remains firmly focused on disciplined underwriting and sustainable profitability. This is positive for the market, reinforcing Lloyd’s role as a stable, long-term partner for clients’ insurance programmes and reducing the likelihood of the sharp market corrections seen in recent years.

Syndicates continue to prioritise quality over volume, with selective appetite across most classes. For US brokers, this means that securing capacity for complex risks, especially catastrophe-exposed property, cyber, and casualty, will continue to demand thorough submissions and well-prepared placement strategies.

Currency Impact: GBP vs USD

The stronger pound affects the relative value of US dollar premiums for Lloyd’s syndicates. This can compress margins on US risks where pricing is already under pressure, prompting greater scrutiny around structure, attachment points and limits.

For brokers, this environment rewards proactive engagement. Anticipating currency-driven conversations and positioning risks clearly can support constructive negotiations and help keep appetite, even where pricing sensitivity exists.

Complex Risks Rising

While the market is experiencing softening across standard property and casualty lines, the outlook for complex and specialty risks is different:

  • Cyber exposure continues to evolve with ransomware and AI-driven attacks escalating and business interruption and supply chain risks developing.

  • Catastrophe risk, particularly in hurricane and wildfire-prone states like Florida, Texas, and California, is driving careful underwriting and pricing.

  • Social inflation is influencing claims severity, especially within casualty lines.

Such dynamics mean these specialty and E&S lines are likely to continue to command strong pricing, even as standard lines soften.

Emerging US Risk Themes for 2026

Looking ahead, several evolving exposures are expected to shape underwriting appetite and coverage discussions:

  • AI Liability - Widespread AI adoption in financial services and healthcare introduces exposure to algorithmic errors and bias claims.

  • PFAS Litigation - Environmental liability from ‘forever chemicals’ continues to grow, creating demand for bespoke coverage.

  • Climate-Driven Property Risks - Rising sea levels and severe weather events are creating new catastrophe hotspots.

  • Supply Chain Disruption - Geopolitical tensions and cyber attacks on logistics networks are amplifying contingent business interruption risk.

Lloyd’s expertise in these areas remains a key differentiator, but access to solutions will continue to favour brokers who engage early and articulate risk clearly.

What This Means for US Brokers

In a softening market, it can be tempting to focus on headline pricing. However, modest capacity growth at Lloyd’s, combined with currency headwinds, suggests no significant surge in supply is imminent. Competition for the right capacity will persist, and the quality of submissions will remain a decisive factor.

Engaging early with the market, using data to demonstrate the strength of risk, and considering multi-year agreements are all strategies that can help brokers secure optimal coverage before pricing or market conditions shift.

About Consilium

Navigating Lloyd’s and the broader London Market requires expertise and insight. Consilium helps US brokers make informed decisions, whether for catastrophe, cyber, financial lines, or complex property and liability risks. Our team’s deep market relationships and delegated authority program expertise provide tailored solutions and strategic guidance.

Consilium is an independent, award-winning global wholesale (re)insurance broker, trading more than USD 1bn GWP annually, with over 100 specialists dedicated to delivering exceptional service.

  • Employee owned

  • Service focused

  • No channel conflict

  • Independent

  • Market access

Our specialty appetite includes: Property, Casualty, Energy, Cargo, Financial Lines, Cyber and Facultative Reinsurance programs.

Our US team is ready to support you with placement strategies for complex and emerging risks, providing market intelligence on syndicate appetite and pricing trends. Contact the team today for tailored solutions using our Lloyd’s and London Market relationships.

Jack Anderson

Senior Partner - Property Risk Solutions

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Jonathan Coombes

Managing Partner - US Casualty Risk Solutions

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Steven Taylor

Senior Partner - Energy Risk Solutions

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Jack Cooper

Senior Partner - Cargo Risk Solutions

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Josh Plummer

Partner - Professional & Executive Risk Solutions

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Maria Rogers

Partner – Delegated Risk Solutions

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Simon Richardson

Managing Partner - Cedant Facultative Risk Solutions

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eng
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